A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
